Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED trends / Apple下修2024 & 2025年Vision Pro出貨預測，不利MR頭戴裝置、Pancake與Micro OLED產業之趨勢

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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Apr 23, 2024

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My latest survey is as follows:

1. Apple has cut its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400–450k units (vs. market consensus of 700–800k units or more).
2. Apple cut orders before launching Vision Pro in non-US markets, which means that demand in the US market has fallen sharply beyond expectations, making Apple take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets.
3. Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, so there may be no new Vision Pro model in 2025 (the previous expectation was that there would be a new model in 2H25/4Q25). Apple now expects Vision Pro shipments to decline YoY in 2025.

The weak-than-expected Vision Pro demand means that the following new trends are likely to be below market expectations.

1. MR headset devices. The challenge for Vision Pro is to address the lack of key applications, price, and headset comfort without sacrificing the see-through user experience. In contrast, VR is also a niche market, but at least there are proven successful applications (games), and trend visibility is better than MR.
2. Pancake. As the upgrade of optical specifications for smartphones has slowed down for several years, investors expect Pancake, which has a significantly higher unit price than lenses, to become a new growth driver for the optical sector. Weaker-than-expected shipments of Vision Pro will lower Pancake’s contribution to the optical industry in the foreseeable future than investors’ expectations.
3. Micro OLED. Vision Pro/MR headset is the most critical application of Micro OLED. With key applications not growing as expected, the timeframe of mass production and adoption of Micro OLEDs in other small-sized consumer electronics devices will be delayed.

我的最新調查與如下：

1. Apple已下修2024年Vision Pro出貨量至40–45萬部 (vs. 市場共識的70–80萬部或以上)。
2. Apple在非美國市場發售Vision Pro前便砍單，代表美國市場需求急劇下滑超過預期，讓Apple連帶保守看待非美國市場需求。
3. Apple正在重新檢視與調整頭戴裝置發展藍圖，故Vision Pro在2025年可能無新機種 (vs. 先前預期2H25/4Q25會有新機型)，Apple目前預期2025年Vision Pro出貨量可能會YoY衰退。

Vision Pro砍單意味著下列新趨勢發展可能低於市場預期

1. MR頭戴裝置。Vision Pro的挑戰在於不犧牲透視 (see-through) 的使用者體驗下，需同時解決欠缺關鍵應用、售價與頭戴舒適度的問題。相較之下，VR雖然也是利基市場，但至少有已經被驗證成功的應用 (遊戲) 與趨勢能見度優於MR。
2. Pancake。因手機的光學規格升級已放緩數年，投資人期待單價顯著高於鏡頭的Pancake能成為光學產業的新成長驅動。Vision Pro低於預期的出貨量將讓Pancake可見未來對光學產業的營收貢獻低於投資人預期。
3. Micro OLED。Vision Pro/MR頭戴裝置為Micro OLED的最關鍵應用。在關鍵應用成長趨勢不如預期下，Micro OLED大量生產與被其他小尺寸消費電子裝置採用的時程將延後。